When You Deal With the Status Quo...

I know I should have done this earlier, but here are my expectations for the Fish this year as compared to last year.

'09 Starting Rotation

Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
-------------
(The rest were used
interchangeably)
Andrew Miller
Rick VandenHurk
Sean West
Anibal Sanchez


2010 Starting Rotation

Johnson
Nolasco
Nate Robertson
Volstad
Sanchez


Result: Improved

The starting rotation is improved for two reasons that may seem minor, but will be a factor in the long run. Not only am I expecting a 2008-like season from Nolasco, I think the addition of Nate Robertson does 3 things for the rotation. 1) Adds veteran and postseason experience; 2) Eats up innings (which most of the rotation failed to do last season to spare the bullpen); and 3) Adds a lefty into the rotation that isn't named Miller.
The second reason I feel more confidant about this year's rotation is the depth and insurance that the team has in the bullpen and in the minors. In case one or two of the starters struggle or get injured, our first insurance policy comes in the form of Clay Hensley. He had an awesome spring and was going to be a part of the rotation had the team not traded for Robertson. I don't think he would be a superstar, but I think he can post some solid numbers, giving you six innings of work and probably an ERA in the mid to upper 3's. I am also confidant in Rick VandenHurk's abilities as a starter this year. His great spring showed me that his command is finally catching up with his stuff. We'll see how he does in the minors.


'09 Bullpen

Leo Nunez
Matt Lindstrom
Dan Meyer
Kiko Calero
Renyel Pinto
Brian Sanches
Brendan Donnelly
Burke Badenhop


2010 Bullpen

Nunez - closer
Meyer
Pinto
Jose Veras
Tim Wood
Clay Hensley
Badenhop
(Sanches on DL for now)

Result: Same

I think the bullpen, as a whole, will perform just as they did last year down the stretch. I think they can have success if the rotation eats up enough innings early in the year and does not tire the bullpen out. In order to achieve greatness, Leo Nunez has to show that he can be a bona-fide closer and not give us the same performance as last season. Am I hinging this on Nunez's shoulders? You bet.


'09 Lineup

1 - Chris Coghlan ( Emilio Bonifacio)
2 - Nick Johnson (John Baker)
3 - Hanley Ramirez
4 - Jorge Cantu
5 - Dan Uggla
6 - Jeremy Hermida
7 - Cody Ross
8 - John Baker/Ronnie Paulino (Cameron Maybin)

2010 Lineup

1 - Coghlan
2 - Maybin
3 - Ramirez
4 - Cantu
5 - Uggla
6 - Baker/Paulino
7 - Ross
8 - Gaby Sanchez

Result: Improved

While I think the loss of Nick Johnson is a loss, I think having Coghlan up the entire year will do this lineup a world of good. Additionally, a lineup that does not include "Hermida" in it makes me a very happy camper. There is a lot more depth than last year, as well in case one of the questionables - Maybin, Sanchez, or Ross (because of injury) - does not pan out. Michael Stanton's spring got me all giddy about the fact that he might be called up this year sometime around the All-Star break if he is needed. If Sanchez does not work out, look for Logan Morrison, the team's first baseman of the future, to get a shot. Another option, if Sanchez were to struggle or get injured, would be letting Brian Barden play third base and moving Cantu over the first which would help the infield's defense.


'09 Bench 2010 Bench

Wes Helms
Ross Gload
Brett Carroll
Alfredo Amezaga
Emilio Bonifacio


2010 Bench

Helms
Bonifacio
Mike Lamb
Brian Barden

Result: Declined

The main reason why I don't feel that this bench is as strong as last year's is the loss of Ross Gload. The combination of pinch-hitting Gload versus right-handers and Helms against left-handers worked wonders, and both of them enjoyed success. Now, if Mike Lamb can show that he can be every bit a threat against righties as Gload was, then we can maybe bring the bench to at least the level it was last year. And while I hope Bonifacio can be a valuable replacement for Alfredo Amezaga, I just have not seen enough to make me believe that will happen. Let's hope that I'm wrong.


'09 Infield (Defense)

C - John Baker/Ronnie Paulino
1B - Jorge Cantu (Nick Johnson)
2B - Dan Uggla
3B - Emilio Bonifacio (Cantu)
SS - Hanley Ramirez


2010 Infield (Defense)

C - Baker/Paulino
1B - Gaby Sanchez
2B - Uggla
3B - Cantu
SS - Ramirez

Result: Same

I had to use "same" since I believe this year's defense will be an average of last seasons' starting defense and the season-ending defense. What on earth am I talking about? I think that this year's defense is better than the one that started off last season (with Bonifacio in the starting lineup) and worse than the one that ended the season (with Nick Johnson). We'll see how this goes. You never know, maybe Gaby Sanchez will surprise me with great defense. If Opening Day is any indicator, however, I think it will be a long season of defensive blunders.


'09 Outfield (Defense)

LF - Jeremy Hermida (Chris Coghlan)
CF - Cameron Maybin (Cody Ross)
RF - Cody Ross (Jeremy Hermida)


2010 Outfield (Defense)

LF - Coghlan
CF - Maybin
RF - Ross

Result: Improved

Why do I foresee improvement? It's simple, no Hermida. Hermida was embarrassing in the outfield, and the fact that he's gone, alone, improves this outfield. While Maybin did not have a good debut at center this year on Opening Day, I think his speed will help the outfield overall. The team basically has a centerfielder in centerfield and in rightfield.


Overall projection: Improved. However, the Phillies and the Braves have also improved dramatically. I don't foresee a playoff appearance, but I doubted their playoff potential in 2003, as well. Let's hope I'm wrong!