When Your Star Begins to Fade...

If you follow me on Twitter, or on Facebook, you should get the idea that my opinion of Marlins outfielder Jeremy Hermida is very low. I remember his first big league at bat back in September of 2005, and how he made a big splash by opening his career with a pinch-hit grand slam. We all thought that this former first round pick would continue that dominance throughout his playing career with Marlins.

I remember his 2006-2007 seasons, how they were ravaged by injuries which hurt his potential. However, I also remember his great second half in 2007, which resulted in his (still) career highs in hits, homeruns, RBIs, and batting average.



And judging by the numbers alone, Hermida looks like a fairly solid player on paper. Sure his batting average is at a not-to-write-anything-home-about number (.257) and he strikes out a lot (86 K's as of 8/6/09). However, his on base percentage is pretty good at .337, which means he might be a good table setter (according to stats alone).

So, why all the animosity?

It just seems that whenever he comes up with the bases empty, early in the game, or in other low-pressure situations, Hermida hits a double, or hits a solo homerun. Meanwhile, late in games or in high-pressure situations, he strikes out, or worse, hits into a game ending double play (as he did on Tuesday against Washington). No matter where he hits in the lineup - second, sixth, seventh, or eighth - fate has it that he will land in a high pressure situation, and fail to come through.

What makes things worse, now, is that Hermida is of no value to this team, nor to any other team. If Beinfest wants to dump him, now, he will get very little, if anything in return.

Let's hope Hermida starts swinging the bat soon - maybe not to salvage the season, but to increase his value and bring in someone who can get the job done more consistently.

When the Tide Turns...

It's amazing what two weeks can do in the game of baseball. About two weeks ago, I posted a blog about how I thought the Florida Marlins were finished. I thought their season had already gone to shambles. I predicted them to finish with a record around the .500 mark.

Little did I know that a fire was about to spark under this team. Little did I know that two weeks after writing that blog, the Fish would see themselves in 2nd place in the National League East, and only half a game behind the first place (and much hated) Philadelphia Phillies (if the Phillies lose their game tonight, the Marlins would jump to first place).

One could say that this jump to second place is an anomaly, that the Marlins are in this position because circumstances have made it so. The Phillies and Mets, after all, are struggling through an assortment of injuries to their lineups and pitching staffs. However, one has to speak highly of a team that finished Interleague play against the four-way battle that is the American League East at 10 wins and 8 losses.

On top of that, Andrew Miller is finally skirting his long-awaited potential and, since his return from the Disabled List on May 16, has an ERA of 3.90 and has struck out twice as many hitters than he has walked. Elite? Not at all. Solid? You bet. And Dan Uggla, whom I spoke so poorly about in that blog that was written fifteen days ago, still needs to work on his batting average, but is second amongst National League second basemen in homeruns (second only to...Chase Utley. The Marlins could still use his bat this season, but this offseason, it should be Larry Beinfest's mission to dump Uggla's salary and strikeouts. Who should he trade for? I'll leave it up to him to decide, I trust his judgement.

Making a long story short, perhaps it was too early for me to write the Fish off. I admit I threw in the white flag too early. But the time has come for the Marlins to buy, rather than sell. ESPN's Buster Olney stated that Marlins are currently looking to shore up their bullpen (cue the parting clouds, the blinding light, and a resounding "Hallelujah!"). Sports Illustrated reported some names the Marlins may be interested in acquiring. Heath Bell of the San Diego Padres and George Sherrill of the Baltimore Orioles would be good fits, but I fear that trading for one of these relievers would come at too high of a cost. Another option not mentioned in the article could be former Marlin and current Cleveland Indians reliever Matt Herges who is quietly putting together another solid season. His arm would help stabilize the Marlins bullpen at a low cost.

If the Fish were willing to deal one of their top of the line prospects (which I doubt they would), here is an idealistic trade scenario:

The Marlins could part with one or two of their prospects (Gaby Sanchez could be included in this package) for Sherrill and a player I think the Marlins would benefit from having on their team: infielder and Marlins-killer Ty Wiggington. Sure, he's having a down year in comparison to his usual output, but it will definitely be an upgrade at third base over Emilio Bonifacio. His salary is not too steep, he is a versatile player (he can play any infield position), and the Marlins would have him under contract for 2010, as well.

Whatever Larry Beinfest ultimately chooses, you can bet that he'll take the best production possible, at the lowest cost possible.

When Things Get Uggla....

The Marlins, at this point in time, have to consider themselves sellers. They are not playing like the 11-1 team they started off as, nor are they playing like the implosion that occurred after that hot start. I figure the Marlins to finish somewhere between 78 to 85 wins, and I would consider that a great season at this point.

That being said, I think it's time for the Marlins to dump some unneeded luggage from the sinking ship. The problem is, which team would be willing to take on this luggage? I'm speaking of course about Dan Uggla.

Uggla does not fit into the Marlins' plans for a pitching, speed, and defense oriented team. He is the second-highest paid player on the team, and has shown a .214 average to show for it. There is no way the Marlins an afford to commit to him any longer. There is also no way the Marlins can get any top-of-the-line prospect. I would like to see Beinfest trade the slugger to a team in need of a homerun hitter who gets on base a lot (.339 on base percentage) despite the amount of strikeouts it would cost. In return, perhaps the Fish can reel up a middle reliever who could remain with the team at least for the next two to three seasons.

Other than lack of productivity and high cost, why trade Dan Uggla? Look at the starting lineup. Out of the eight position players, four of them are second basemen, three of them, obviously, not playing their first position.

1) Jorge Cantu is a second basemen who has done a good job at first base. His presence in the lineup is important, so one would hope the Marlins stick with him.

2) Emilio Bonifacio is a second basemen who is playing the hot corner. Not only has he not produced with the bat, but his defense is sub-par. I hope that after seeing the Bonifacio-at-third experiment, the Marlins might reconsider their long term plans with him. At best, I project him to be an Alfredo Amezaga type of player - very useful off the bench (although I don't have a problem with Amezaga being in the starting lineup everyday).

3) Chris Coughlan is a second basemen who is stuck playing left field at the moment. Moving Uggla would move Coughlan - whose bat has finally lit up - to his normal position. By doing this, the Fish can bring up an outfielder.

Cameron Maybin needs to be on the Major League roster. He had his struggles earlier this season. But the Marlins, who will not be in the playoffs this year, can afford to let him work through his struggles in the big leagues this year. This move would not only improve the outfield defense, but it would give the offense more speed. These two factors would help the Marlins move in a direction that led them to the World Series Championship in 2003.

This season has been a disappointment for many Marlins fan. But, when things get ugly, it's time to keep your eye on the future, and not salvage a sinking ship that cannot be repaired by October.

What do you think? Are the Marlins buyers of sellers? If they're buyers, who should they try and acquire? If they are sellers, who should they dump?