When You Deal With the Status Quo...

I know I should have done this earlier, but here are my expectations for the Fish this year as compared to last year.

'09 Starting Rotation

Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
-------------
(The rest were used
interchangeably)
Andrew Miller
Rick VandenHurk
Sean West
Anibal Sanchez


2010 Starting Rotation

Johnson
Nolasco
Nate Robertson
Volstad
Sanchez


Result: Improved

The starting rotation is improved for two reasons that may seem minor, but will be a factor in the long run. Not only am I expecting a 2008-like season from Nolasco, I think the addition of Nate Robertson does 3 things for the rotation. 1) Adds veteran and postseason experience; 2) Eats up innings (which most of the rotation failed to do last season to spare the bullpen); and 3) Adds a lefty into the rotation that isn't named Miller.
The second reason I feel more confidant about this year's rotation is the depth and insurance that the team has in the bullpen and in the minors. In case one or two of the starters struggle or get injured, our first insurance policy comes in the form of Clay Hensley. He had an awesome spring and was going to be a part of the rotation had the team not traded for Robertson. I don't think he would be a superstar, but I think he can post some solid numbers, giving you six innings of work and probably an ERA in the mid to upper 3's. I am also confidant in Rick VandenHurk's abilities as a starter this year. His great spring showed me that his command is finally catching up with his stuff. We'll see how he does in the minors.


'09 Bullpen

Leo Nunez
Matt Lindstrom
Dan Meyer
Kiko Calero
Renyel Pinto
Brian Sanches
Brendan Donnelly
Burke Badenhop


2010 Bullpen

Nunez - closer
Meyer
Pinto
Jose Veras
Tim Wood
Clay Hensley
Badenhop
(Sanches on DL for now)

Result: Same

I think the bullpen, as a whole, will perform just as they did last year down the stretch. I think they can have success if the rotation eats up enough innings early in the year and does not tire the bullpen out. In order to achieve greatness, Leo Nunez has to show that he can be a bona-fide closer and not give us the same performance as last season. Am I hinging this on Nunez's shoulders? You bet.


'09 Lineup

1 - Chris Coghlan ( Emilio Bonifacio)
2 - Nick Johnson (John Baker)
3 - Hanley Ramirez
4 - Jorge Cantu
5 - Dan Uggla
6 - Jeremy Hermida
7 - Cody Ross
8 - John Baker/Ronnie Paulino (Cameron Maybin)

2010 Lineup

1 - Coghlan
2 - Maybin
3 - Ramirez
4 - Cantu
5 - Uggla
6 - Baker/Paulino
7 - Ross
8 - Gaby Sanchez

Result: Improved

While I think the loss of Nick Johnson is a loss, I think having Coghlan up the entire year will do this lineup a world of good. Additionally, a lineup that does not include "Hermida" in it makes me a very happy camper. There is a lot more depth than last year, as well in case one of the questionables - Maybin, Sanchez, or Ross (because of injury) - does not pan out. Michael Stanton's spring got me all giddy about the fact that he might be called up this year sometime around the All-Star break if he is needed. If Sanchez does not work out, look for Logan Morrison, the team's first baseman of the future, to get a shot. Another option, if Sanchez were to struggle or get injured, would be letting Brian Barden play third base and moving Cantu over the first which would help the infield's defense.


'09 Bench 2010 Bench

Wes Helms
Ross Gload
Brett Carroll
Alfredo Amezaga
Emilio Bonifacio


2010 Bench

Helms
Bonifacio
Mike Lamb
Brian Barden

Result: Declined

The main reason why I don't feel that this bench is as strong as last year's is the loss of Ross Gload. The combination of pinch-hitting Gload versus right-handers and Helms against left-handers worked wonders, and both of them enjoyed success. Now, if Mike Lamb can show that he can be every bit a threat against righties as Gload was, then we can maybe bring the bench to at least the level it was last year. And while I hope Bonifacio can be a valuable replacement for Alfredo Amezaga, I just have not seen enough to make me believe that will happen. Let's hope that I'm wrong.


'09 Infield (Defense)

C - John Baker/Ronnie Paulino
1B - Jorge Cantu (Nick Johnson)
2B - Dan Uggla
3B - Emilio Bonifacio (Cantu)
SS - Hanley Ramirez


2010 Infield (Defense)

C - Baker/Paulino
1B - Gaby Sanchez
2B - Uggla
3B - Cantu
SS - Ramirez

Result: Same

I had to use "same" since I believe this year's defense will be an average of last seasons' starting defense and the season-ending defense. What on earth am I talking about? I think that this year's defense is better than the one that started off last season (with Bonifacio in the starting lineup) and worse than the one that ended the season (with Nick Johnson). We'll see how this goes. You never know, maybe Gaby Sanchez will surprise me with great defense. If Opening Day is any indicator, however, I think it will be a long season of defensive blunders.


'09 Outfield (Defense)

LF - Jeremy Hermida (Chris Coghlan)
CF - Cameron Maybin (Cody Ross)
RF - Cody Ross (Jeremy Hermida)


2010 Outfield (Defense)

LF - Coghlan
CF - Maybin
RF - Ross

Result: Improved

Why do I foresee improvement? It's simple, no Hermida. Hermida was embarrassing in the outfield, and the fact that he's gone, alone, improves this outfield. While Maybin did not have a good debut at center this year on Opening Day, I think his speed will help the outfield overall. The team basically has a centerfielder in centerfield and in rightfield.


Overall projection: Improved. However, the Phillies and the Braves have also improved dramatically. I don't foresee a playoff appearance, but I doubted their playoff potential in 2003, as well. Let's hope I'm wrong!

When Fans are Blinded by Money...

Being a Marlins fan is usually a roller-coaster of a ride to be on. I mean, after all, a Fish fan has to put up with the uncertainty of how next year's roster will look like offseason after offseason. Luckily, for us fans who are luckier than Cubs fans, but aren't as lucky as Red Sox (for the last five years) and Yankees fans got a break to start 2010.

Major League Baseball confonted the Marlins management (i.e. Jeffrey Loria and David Samson) about their "frugality" in player salaries. While the Marlins deny any wrong doing, financially, they quickly signed Josh Johnson to a long term deal and declared that the majority of the 87-win team from last year will remain intact, which will raise player payroll to $45 million. So, fish fans started going crazy, excited about next season. Even David Samson believes that the Marlins will bring a World Series championship to South Florida this year.

Knowing this, I feel like I'm the only Fish fan who remains skeptical. People tend to think that raising player payroll itself so that you can bring back the entire team helps win a championship.

I am on the minority that hoped Dan Uggla would be traded. Don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player. However, when you are working with a limited budget, you have to think about where the team's weaknesses lie. Offense is not one of them, and while losing Uggla would lower the team's power numbers, I feel Hanley Ramirez, Jorge Cantu, and Cody Ross could supply the lineup with enough power. Dumping Uggla's salary could help the team fill some gaps in the opening day roster.

For instance, I am not comfortable with the rotation after Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. I think the Marlins could try to ink (or trade Uggla for) a number 3 starter to plug in between the two beasts at the top and a combination of Anibal Sanchez/Chris Volstad/Rick VandenHurk/Ryan Tucker/Burke Badenhop filling out the last two rotation spots. Another area that worries me? The bullpen. Kiko Calero and Brendan Donnelly are gone. So the bullpen will have to be carried by Leo Nunez, Renyel Pinto, Dan Meyer, and Brian Sanches (who I actually do believe to be an asset along with Meyer). I think adding a proven, veteran arm into this mix would help these pitchers continue to grow, and help give Nunez some competition for the closer's spot.

Lastly, this team is missing one piece of the offense. I don't know which position will be filled, but I think a left-handed bat who can hit at least .270/15/75 would suffice. Right now the opening day roster looks like this:

SP - Johnson
C - John Baker/ Ronnie Paulino
1B - Cantu/Free Agent/Minor Leaguer
2B - Uggla
3B - Cantu/Bonifacio/Free Agent/Minor Leaguer
SS - Ramirez
LF - Chris Coughlan
CF - Cameron Maybin
RF - Ross

So, dumping Uggla's salary could help net the Marlins a veteran, solid hitter and fielder to play either first base, second base, third base, or one of the two corner outfield spots (and moving Coughlan to his first position at second base).

But, I do trust Larry Beinfest to make the best with the payroll he is given. There are still two full months before Spring Training ends. However, as of right now, I'd rather keep my expectations low and not be blinded by the increase in payroll. That way, I won't become too disappointed if or when the Marlins do not make it to the postseason. They do have to get past Roy Halladay and the Phillies, after all. So, at the very best, maybe the Marlins can compete for a wild-card.

But like I said, I think skepticism tends to work towards my favor when it comes to the Fish.